Europe cut Russian oil by 90%

The fastest energy restructuring in 50 years. India and China absorbed the surplus. Russia now sells at steep discounts.

Post-sanctions reality

Arc thickness = leverage score

Rus
Sau
Uni
UAE
Ira
Ira

Leverage Shifts (2019 โ†’ 2024)

The 2022 sanctions triggered the largest rerouting of global oil flows since the 1973 Arab oil embargo.

Leverage Gained

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ชโ†’๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉUAEโ†’Indonesi+22
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆโ†’๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทSaudi Arโ†’France+18
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ†’๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑUnited Sโ†’Netherla+18
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ†’๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทUnited Sโ†’France+18
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ†’๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑUnited Sโ†’Poland+18

Leverage Lost

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโ†’๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎRussiaโ†’Finland-79
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโ†’๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑRussiaโ†’Poland-71
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโ†’๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ชRussiaโ†’Germany-68
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโ†’๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡นRussiaโ†’Italy-59
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโ†’๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟRussiaโ†’Czechia-52

New Dependencies

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโ†’๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณRussiaโ†’India5โ†’68
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ดโ†’๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑNorwayโ†’Poland0โ†’32
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆโ†’๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑSaudi Arโ†’Poland0โ†’28
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ†’๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ชUnited Sโ†’Germany5โ†’28